Most of MLB teams defense have been improving since the 2014 season, this current regular season is showing these defense improvements with teams that are highly profitable to bet ATS. Although they are only temporary trends, we have to take advantage of them while they last, and probably the trend will end in a couple of months.
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Teams with bad season start this 2015 are recovering slowly and still remain ATS. One of those teams is Boston Red Sox, despite going 30 wins 39 defeats, this season for them have exceeded expectations and won a couple of games against Kansas City Royals and finally get out of the slump they had. Red Sox this season have an amazing Against the Spread record, leaving a profit to the bettors of +$1,064. This shows the great determination that this Boston team has to recover the season and move on.
If the trend is exponential, you should keep betting until it is gone. As soon you lost 2 times in a row, you have to deviate from the trend immediately and take a rest time of 4 days to see if the trend continues or stopped completely.
Another great example is the Milwaukee Brewers, a mediocre team if you want, but the team has been playing in a decent way to recover and left some quality profits to the bettor. The record is the similar as Red Sox, with 20+ total wins playing Against the Spread. Total profit so far +$1,374.
Below is a table showing the most profitable teams according to ATS betting earnings so far for this season on average of $100 per unit.
Teams ATS Profit
Boston Red Sox
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Stats source: MLB, Killersports.com
As shown in the table, these teams have had a bad performance in the 2015 season but for some reason they have been generating money losing games. Punters should take this table and take the advantage of those teams.
Major league baseball season started quite profitable this year, especially for those gamblers that like to take the Totals. Most of teams with few home wins have come by completing the Over on many occasions, even without winning. For example, San Diego Padres, have a great record at home with 22 overs and 12 unders and one single “tie” in the total.
We do not care if a team wins or not, what should matter is they complete the total.
The Padres may be 33 wins 37 losses this season, a pretty bad record, but notice something despite everything bad that has been this season for the Padres, they are still a profitable team. With the last changes that happened in the season, with the pitchers most of all, the teams have been entering a batting imbalance. This has been demonstrated in recent home games this 2015 season.
The American League and National League, both have good and bad teams, but some favorite teams from both leagues have suffered the brunt of the lower-table teams, receiving many runs from them while playing at their home.
The statistics do not lean towards any side, neither favorites nor underdogs, any team can have an excellent record of Totals (home at most) in this season.
Last month alone home teams ended with +15.5 units only on Overs, not counting Unders. There are a lot batting power, .398 last month for home teams and .400 on the road teams. If the common value of a unit is $100, then the gambler took about $1,500 in one week just playing overs.
The following table shows the most profitable teams by totals this season at HOME games, especially the OVER. We must take advantage of this trend as much as you can until it is gone, mid season games get tighter.
Team Total (Over) Profit
19-14-0 (1.77, 57.6%)
19-16-0 (0.10, 54.3%)
New York Yankees
15-11-4 (1.62, 57.7%)
Tampa Bay Rays
18-15-2 (0.56, 54.5%)
16-14-1 (0.26, 53.3%)
San Diego Padres
22-12-1 (2.09, 64.7%)
New York Mets
19-17-1 (0.77, 52.8%)
23-11-1 (1.73, 67.6%)
19-13-1 (1.12, 59.4%)
19-11-2 (1.38, 63.3%)
19-11-2 (1.52, 63.3%)
18-14-2 (1.10, 56.2%)
As shown in the table profitable teams are in both leagues, American and National.
These teams, while at home they have an excellent opportunity to complete the OVER. The teams with bad results so far in the 2015 season are hitting hard. Baseball teams that have a "place" ensured in the postseason are testing inexperienced pitchers against mediocre teams.