Current Odds: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-130), Over/Under 41.5
Weather: 87F, 67% Humidity, Slight Chance of Thunderstorms
Following a dominant performance against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, expectations were extremely high in Buffalo for the match-up against the New England Patriots in Week 2. But the Patriots brought the Bills back to reality with a 40-32 win and more than 500 yards of total offense. In his first season as the Buffalo Bills starting quarterback, Tyrod Taylor’s numbers have been decent, as he has completed 75.5 percent of his throws, for 437 yards, four touchdowns and three picks. Against New England, Taylor threw three interceptions and was sacked 8 times, but nearly led his side to a fourth quarter comeback. The Buffalo Bills rank 3rd in the league in rushing yards per game with 153.5 and they should keep pounding the rock against a Miami Dolphins team that is (surprisingly?) having problems at stopping the run. Defensively, the Bills have been as good at stopping the run, with 60 rushing yards allowed per game (2nd in the NFL), as they have been bad at containing the passing game, with 345.5 yards allowed per game (31st in the NFL).
Miami Dolphins (1-1)
The Dolphins are looking to bounce back from a surprising 23-20 defeat on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. QB Ryan Tannehill has looked very good in these first two weeks, completing 66.7 percent of his passes, with three touchdowns and zero picks. But this team is having a hard time converting third downs (37 percent, 22nd in the league), running the football (58.0 yards per game, 30th in the league) and scoring points (18.5, 26th in the league). Defensively, and despite the acquisition via free agency of DT Ndamukong Suh, the Dolphins haven’t showed much improvement. In fact, Suh’s effort and focus have already been questioned, considering that after two weeks, the $114 million-player still has no tackles for loss and no sacks. Last week, Miami allowed a total of 396 yards against a Jaguars team that last season averaged only 289.6 yards per game.
So far, the Dolphins have been as inconsistent and underwhelming as last season and the Bills are yet to prove that they have what it takes to be a playoff caliber team. Miami will need to do a better job at stopping the run while the Bills will be in a lot of trouble if they continue to allow big plays throw the air. This will probably be a very close game and will come down to which team is more efficient at taking care of the football.
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Miami Dolphins -2.5 at 5Dimes
Virtually nobody is betting on the Miami Dolphins to win this game, let alone cover the spread. But this will be the first road game for the Buffalo Bills, and the first use of home-field advantage for Miami. After scraping by the Washington Redskins in week 1, and going on to lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 2, the Dolphins will be hungry for this rivalry game.
Oddsmakers seem forced to give this game the "standard" 3-point, home-field advantage spread. This is good news for Miami Dolphins backers on Sunday, especially knowing that the Bills are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 visits to Sun Life Stadium. In fact, the home team is a solid 5-1 ATS in the last 6 contests between these two, and the favorite is a very profitable 7-1 ATS in the last 8.
The Buffalo Bills have allowed 811 total yards over their first two games. I suspect that Miami's lacking offense finally gets on track. I'm gladly taking Miami to cover the number on Sunday.